← Field guide · what a strategy is

What is a trading strategy?

  • A trading strategy is a set of rules complete enough that two people running it on the same data end up with the same trades.
  • Most of what gets called a strategy is a name with an opinion attached.

What it is

  • What you trade. The structure — a bull put spread, a covered call, whatever it is.
  • When you open it. The conditions that have to be true first.
  • How it is built. The four numbers — delta, tenor, width, minimum credit.
  • When it ends. The exit rule, stated before you enter.
  • On what. The universe of names it is allowed to trade.

The test that separates a strategy from an idea

Hand it to somebody else with the same price history. If they come back with a different set of trades, it was not a strategy — it was a description, and the gaps were filled in by your judgement without either of you noticing.

The three things people call a strategy

What is saidWhat is missingCan it be tested?
“I sell puts on good companies”Which companies, which strike, which expiry, when you closeNo
“I sell 16 delta puts, 45 days out”How wide, what minimum credit, what closes it, on which namesNot yet
“16 delta, 45 DTE, $5 wide, minimum $0.50 credit, close at half or at 21 days, on these fifty names”NothingYes
  • All three are honest descriptions of what someone does. Only the third can be checked.
  • The gap between the second and the third is where most disagreements about whether a strategy works actually live.
  • Two traders running the second line for a year can reach opposite conclusions and both be telling the truth.

Where it bites

A strategy that cannot be handed to somebody else is not a strategy. It is a habit you are good at.

  • You cannot improve what you cannot measure. If the rules move with your mood, last month’s result tells you nothing about next month’s.
  • You cannot tell luck from skill. A run of wins on rules that shift is indistinguishable from a run of wins on rules that work.
  • And you cannot debug it. When it stops working there is no list of parts to check.

This is not a criticism of discretion

  • Plenty of people make money on judgement. That is real and it is not what this site is about.
  • What cannot be done is measure it, which means it cannot be compared against the alternative.
  • Everything published here has to be reproducible by a stranger, so everything published here is written to that standard.

Common questions

Is a strategy the same as a system?

Not quite. A system is usually taken to include position sizing and the rules for running the whole account, not just the individual trade. See strategy vs setup vs system.

Does a strategy have to be fully mechanical?

To be tested here, yes. Anything that needs a judgement call on the day cannot be replayed against history, so it cannot be compared with the alternative.

How many rules does a strategy need?

As few as possible and no fewer. Every extra rule is another thing that could have been fitted to the past rather than discovered in it.

Where do most strategies fall short?

The exit. Entries get described in detail and the exit gets one clause, which is the half that moves the result more.

How this shows up in our tests

Every test on this site publishes its strategy in full before the numbers — the structure, the four numbers, the universe, the period and the exit.

No result is published yet, so there is nothing to link to. The specification of each queued test is on its article now, written before the run rather than after it.