← Field guide · what a strategy is

Strategy, setup, system

  • Three words used interchangeably, for three different things.
  • Getting them apart is what lets you say which part of a losing run actually failed.

What each one is

What it coversExample
SetupThe conditions that have to be true before you look at a tradeStock above its 50-day average, IV rank over 30
StrategyThe setup, plus what you trade and when you get outThat setup, traded as a 16Δ put spread, $5 wide, closed at half
SystemThe strategy, plus how much and how many at onceThat strategy, at 2% of the account per trade, ten open at most
  • A setup does not tell you what to trade. The same setup can be expressed as a spread, a naked put or shares.
  • A strategy does not tell you how much to risk. That is the system’s job, and it is where accounts actually die.
  • Each layer can be right while the one above it is wrong.

Why the distinction earns its keep

When a run of trades goes badly, these three words are the diagnosis.

  • Did the setup stop appearing? Then the market changed and the strategy never got a chance.
  • Did the setup appear and the trades still lose? Then the structure or the exit is wrong, not the entry.
  • Did the trades work and the account still shrink? Then it is sizing, and no amount of tinkering with strikes will fix it.
  • Three questions, three different repairs. Collapse the words and you cannot tell which one you are looking at.

It also decides what a test can prove

  • A backtest of a strategy tells you what the trades were worth.
  • It says nothing about whether you could have held ten of them at once, or what one bad month would have done to the account.
  • That is a system question, and it needs the trades plus a sizing rule before it can be answered.

Where it bites

Almost every argument about whether something “works” is two people talking about different layers.

  • One says the wheel works — he means the setup keeps appearing and the trades keep closing green.
  • The other says it does not — he means the account went nowhere once a bad year is included.
  • Both can be right at once, because they are describing different layers of the same thing.

What this site tests

  • We test strategies. Structure, four numbers, universe, period, exit.
  • We report system-level numbers where the data allows it — the worst drawdown, and how much of an account the strategy could actually absorb.
  • We do not publish a sizing rule, because that is advice and this site does not give any.

Common questions

Is 'the wheel' a setup, a strategy or a system?

As usually described, none of them — it is a sequence of positions with no numbers attached. See why the wheel is not a strategy yet.

Can a good setup have a bad strategy attached?

Easily. The same correct read on a stock can be expressed as a trade that pays well or one that pays terribly, and the difference is structure and exit.

Which layer matters most?

The one you have not written down. In practice that is usually sizing, because it is the layer nobody publishes and the one that decides whether a bad month is an annoyance or the end.

Do I need all three before I trade?

You have all three whether you write them down or not. The only question is whether you chose them.

How this shows up in our tests

Every test article on this site names the strategy layer in full and says which system-level numbers it can and cannot report.

No result is published yet. When one is, the drawdown and the capacity will be reported next to the per-trade numbers, because a strategy that cannot be held at size is a different proposition from one that can.