Everything above is the idea. This is the position — the lines you would actually send to a broker.
| Leg | Action | Qty | Expiry | DTE | Strike | Delta | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sell to open | -1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 90 Put | +0.10 (10Δ) | $0.41 |
| 2 | Sell to open | -1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 110 Call | -0.16 (16Δ) | $0.72 |
| Net | Credit | 1 position | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | — | -0.07 | $1.14 |
SELL -1 STRANGLE XYZ 16 OCT 26 90/110 COMBO @ 1.14 CREDIT
Bull
makes the claim
The wings on a condor are the most expensive insurance in the market and they almost never pay. Take them off and the same range trade collects several times as much. Size it properly and the maths is simply better.
Bear
doubts it
“Size it properly” is doing an enormous amount of work in that sentence. One gap through a strike and you are not down a defined amount, you are down whatever the market decided overnight. There is no number to size against.
Ferret
settles it
Then the test is not whether it collects more — it plainly does. It is what the worst outcome across a long enough history does to an account. That means drawdown, not average return, and it means a period long enough to include a crash.
The naked strangle on XYZ at $100 · 25% volatility · 4% rate · 45 days. Priced from the model, not written by hand.
| At expiry | |
|---|---|
| Credit taken in | $114 |
| Maximum profit | $114 |
| Maximum loss | unlimited |
| Breakevens | $88.86, $111.14 |
One side of this structure has no bound, so the table says unlimited rather than whatever number the edge of the chart happened to reach. That is the honest answer and it is the one that should change how you size it.
The chart above is the shape at expiry. It puts the bend right next to the money, which makes the trade look like it is already on the edge. It is not — here is the day you open it.
The same structure set up at 16Δ · 45 days · credit $141. The shaded band is the room between the stock and the strike you sold.
| On day one | At expiry | |
|---|---|---|
| Stock at $92 (the strike you sold) | $-166 | $141 |
| Stock unchanged at $100 | $0 | $141 |
Two dials, and they matter more here than anywhere else on the shelf: how far out the strikes sit, and how long you give the trade.
| Days | Short strike | Away from spot | Credit | Max loss | Risk : reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 97 | +3.0% | $58 | unlimited | — |
| 21 | 95 | +5.0% | $103 | unlimited | — |
| 45 | 92 | +8.0% | $141 | unlimited | — |
| 90 | 90 | +10.0% | $212 | unlimited | — |
| Delta | Short strike | Away from spot | Credit | Max loss | Risk : reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40Δ | 99 | +1.0% | $522 | unlimited | — |
| 25Δ | 95 | +5.0% | $261 | unlimited | — |
| 15Δ | 92 | +8.0% | $141 | unlimited | — |
Every other page on this shelf can tell you what the worst day looks like. This one cannot.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | -6.5 | -4.75 | $+4.12 | $-14.63 | $-0.67 |
| 21 | -3.0 | -3.35 | $+2.90 | $-4.82 | $-0.16 |
| 7 | -0.2 | -0.39 | $+0.34 | $-0.19 | $-0.00 |
The position at entry — stock $100 · 25% volatility. Per contract, from the model.
This is the part that decides whether the strategy works, and it is almost never put plainly.
You cannot be paid theta without being short gamma. They are not two features of the trade. They are the rent and the risk on one lease.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | -6.5 | -4.75 | $+4.12 | $-14.63 | $-0.67 |
| 21 | -3.0 | -3.35 | $+2.90 | $-4.82 | $-0.16 |
| 7 | -0.2 | -0.39 | $+0.34 | $-0.19 | $-0.00 |
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | +39.1 | -5.47 | $+3.46 | $-13.95 | $+4.70 |
| 21 | +39.9 | -7.14 | $+4.65 | $-8.51 | $+2.18 |
| 7 | +36.0 | -11.87 | $+8.05 | $-4.71 | $+0.64 |
The trap is that it works, most of the time, for a long time.
A strategy with no maximum loss cannot be sized from a maximum loss. Most people size it anyway.
How this shows up in our tests — pending. No result has been published on this structure yet.