Everything above is the idea. This is the position — the lines you would actually send to a broker.
| Leg | Action | Qty | Expiry | DTE | Strike | Delta | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sell to open | -1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 95 Put | +0.25 (25Δ) | $1.35 |
| 2 | Buy to open | +1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 90 Put | -0.10 (10Δ) | $0.41 |
| 3 | Sell to open | -1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 106 Call | -0.29 (29Δ) | $1.50 |
| 4 | Buy to open | +1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 111 Call | +0.14 (14Δ) | $0.59 |
| Net | Credit | 1 position | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | $5 wide | +0.00 | $1.84 |
SELL -1 IRON CONDOR XYZ 16 OCT 26 90/95/106/111 COMBO @ 1.84 CREDIT
Bull
makes the claim
Most of the time a stock does nothing much. This gets paid for exactly that. Two credits, one position, and a range wide enough that the stock has to genuinely go somewhere before I am in trouble.
Bear
doubts it
You have doubled the income and doubled the number of ways to be wrong. Every gap, every earnings surprise, every rate decision is a threat to one end or the other. And you can only ever collect one credit’s worth of extra safety, because only one side can lose.
Ferret
settles it
Both of you are arguing about the middle. What settles it is the tail: how often the stock leaves the range, and how much it costs when it does. Name the deltas, the width and the exit, and that is measurable.
The iron condor on XYZ at $100 · 25% volatility · 4% rate · 45 days. Priced from the model, not written by hand.
| At expiry | |
|---|---|
| Credit taken in | $184 |
| Maximum profit | $184 |
| Maximum loss | $-316 |
| Breakevens | $93.16, $107.84 |
The chart above is the shape at expiry. It puts the bend right next to the money, which makes the trade look like it is already on the edge. It is not — here is the day you open it.
The same structure set up at 20Δ · 45 days · credit $134. The shaded band is the room between the stock and the strike you sold.
| On day one | At expiry | |
|---|---|---|
| Stock at $94 (the strike you sold) | $-67 | $134 |
| Stock unchanged at $100 | $0 | $134 |
The same two dials as a single spread, applied to both sides at once. Every panel is a $5-wide condor on the same $100 stock.
The panels below draw the put side’s room, because that is where the shaded band is measured. The call side moves in step with it.
| Days | Short strike | Away from spot | Credit | Max loss | Risk : reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 97 | +3.0% | $71 | $-429 | 6.0 : 1 |
| 21 | 95 | +5.0% | $98 | $-402 | 4.1 : 1 |
| 45 | 94 | +6.0% | $134 | $-366 | 2.7 : 1 |
| 90 | 92 | +8.0% | $154 | $-346 | 2.3 : 1 |
| Delta | Short strike | Away from spot | Credit | Max loss | Risk : reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40Δ | 99 | +1.0% | $307 | $-193 | 0.6 : 1 |
| 25Δ | 95 | +5.0% | $171 | $-329 | 1.9 : 1 |
| 15Δ | 92 | +8.0% | $99 | $-401 | 4.1 : 1 |
A condor built to the same delta on both sides is not centred on the stock, and it is not meant to be.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | +0.2 | -3.01 | $+2.55 | $-9.27 | $+0.25 |
| 21 | +0.8 | -5.86 | $+5.00 | $-8.44 | $+0.10 |
| 7 | +1.4 | -6.37 | $+5.44 | $-3.05 | $+0.03 |
The position at entry — stock $100 · 25% volatility. Per contract, from the model.
This is the part that decides whether the strategy works, and it is almost never put plainly.
You cannot be paid theta without being short gamma. They are not two features of the trade. They are the rent and the risk on one lease.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | +0.2 | -3.01 | $+2.55 | $-9.27 | $+0.25 |
| 21 | +0.8 | -5.86 | $+5.00 | $-8.44 | $+0.10 |
| 7 | +1.4 | -6.37 | $+5.44 | $-3.05 | $+0.03 |
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | +13.3 | -2.51 | $+1.80 | $-7.07 | $+1.83 |
| 21 | +25.3 | -4.27 | $+3.05 | $-5.60 | $+1.48 |
| 7 | +38.3 | -9.39 | $+6.92 | $-4.11 | $+0.72 |
The trap on a condor is the maximum loss, and it catches experienced traders.
The most you can lose is one width less the credit — not two, and not the width.
How this shows up in our tests — pending. No result has been published on this structure yet.