Everything above is the idea. This is the position — the lines you would actually send to a broker.
| Leg | Action | Qty | Expiry | DTE | Strike | Delta | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sell to open | -1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 105 Call | -0.32 (32Δ) | $1.77 |
| 2 | Buy to open | +1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 110 Call | +0.16 (16Δ) | $0.72 |
| Net | Credit | 1 position | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | $5 wide | -0.16 | $1.05 |
SELL -1 VERTICAL XYZ 16 OCT 26 105/110 CALL @ 1.05 CREDIT
Bull
makes the claim
I’ll take the other side of this all day. You are selling the upside of a stock that has been going up. The market spends most of its life drifting higher, and you have just been paid a few dollars to stand in front of that.
Bear
doubts it
I am not calling a crash. I am saying it does not get through 105 in six weeks, and I get paid if it stalls, drifts sideways, or falls a little. Three of the four things a stock can do pay me.
Ferret
settles it
The fourth one is the problem and nobody has priced it. What happens on a gap through both strikes, how often does that happen on this name, and what closes the trade before it does. Name the exit and I can test it.
The bear call spread on XYZ at $100 · 25% volatility · 4% rate · 45 days. Priced from the model, not written by hand.
| At expiry | |
|---|---|
| Credit taken in | $105 |
| Maximum profit | $105 |
| Maximum loss | $-395 |
| Breakeven | $106.05 |
The chart above is the shape at expiry. It puts the bend right next to the money, which makes the trade look like it is already on the edge. It is not — here is the day you open it.
The same structure set up at 20Δ · 45 days · credit $56. The shaded band is the room between the stock and the strike you sold.
| On day one | At expiry | |
|---|---|---|
| Stock at $109 (the strike you sold) | $-145 | $56 |
| Stock unchanged at $100 | $0 | $56 |
Two dials again: how long you give it, and how far above the money you sell. Every panel is the same $5-wide call spread on the same $100 stock.
| Days | Short strike | Away from spot | Credit | Max loss | Risk : reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 103 | -3.0% | $38 | $-462 | 12.1 : 1 |
| 21 | 106 | -6.0% | $47 | $-453 | 9.7 : 1 |
| 45 | 109 | -9.0% | $56 | $-444 | 7.9 : 1 |
| 90 | 113 | -13.0% | $63 | $-437 | 6.9 : 1 |
| Delta | Short strike | Away from spot | Credit | Max loss | Risk : reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40Δ | 103 | -3.0% | $138 | $-362 | 2.6 : 1 |
| 25Δ | 107 | -7.0% | $78 | $-422 | 5.4 : 1 |
| 15Δ | 110 | -10.0% | $47 | $-453 | 9.7 : 1 |
A 20 delta call and a 20 delta put are not two halves of a symmetric trade — not even in a model with no skew in it.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | -16.2 | -1.30 | $+1.28 | $-4.01 | $-1.87 |
| 21 | -16.4 | -2.95 | $+2.70 | $-4.24 | $-0.91 |
| 7 | -8.2 | -4.22 | $+3.70 | $-2.02 | $-0.15 |
The position at entry — stock $100 · 25% volatility. Per contract, from the model.
This is the part that decides whether the strategy works, and it is almost never put plainly.
You cannot be paid theta without being short gamma. They are not two features of the trade. They are the rent and the risk on one lease.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | -16.2 | -1.30 | $+1.28 | $-4.01 | $-1.87 |
| 21 | -16.4 | -2.95 | $+2.70 | $-4.24 | $-0.91 |
| 7 | -8.2 | -4.22 | $+3.70 | $-2.02 | $-0.15 |
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | -20.4 | -0.48 | $+0.66 | $-1.60 | $-2.40 |
| 21 | -28.0 | -1.70 | $+1.89 | $-2.66 | $-1.59 |
| 7 | -38.6 | -7.08 | $+7.05 | $-3.70 | $-0.75 |
The trap on this one is thinking it is the bull put spread upside down.
The same delta does not buy you the same trade on the two sides.
How this shows up in our tests — pending. No result has been published on this structure yet.