Everything above is the idea. This is the position — the lines you would actually send to a broker.
| Leg | Action | Qty | Expiry | DTE | Strike | Delta | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sell to open | -1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 100 Put | +0.46 (46Δ) | $3.25 |
| 2 | Sell to open | -1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 100 Call | -0.54 (54Δ) | $3.74 |
| Net | Credit | 1 position | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | — | -0.08 | $7.00 |
SELL -1 STRADDLE XYZ 16 OCT 26 100/100 COMBO @ 7.00 CREDIT
Bull
makes the claim
Implied volatility is usually higher than what actually happens. Selling the straddle is the cleanest way to be paid for that difference, and there is no cheaper way to express it.
Bear
doubts it
It is higher for a reason and the reason turns up occasionally. You are selling insurance at the exact strike everybody watches, with no cap on either side, and you will be right about eighty per cent of the time until the day you are not.
Ferret
settles it
The breakevens are the implied move. So the whole argument is: does this stock move less than implied, often enough, by enough. That is a measurable claim on a long enough sample — and the sample has to include the bad years or it means nothing.
The short straddle on XYZ at $100 · 25% volatility · 4% rate · 45 days. Priced from the model, not written by hand.
| At expiry | |
|---|---|
| Credit taken in | $700 |
| Maximum profit | $700 |
| Maximum loss | unlimited |
| Breakevens | $93.00, $107.00 |
One side of this structure has no bound, so the table says unlimited rather than whatever number the edge of the chart happened to reach. That is the honest answer and it is the one that should change how you size it.
The chart above is the shape at expiry. It puts the bend right next to the money, which makes the trade look like it is already on the edge. It is not — here is the day you open it.
The same structure set up at 50Δ · 45 days · credit $700. The shaded band is the room between the stock and the strike you sold.
| On day one | At expiry | |
|---|---|---|
| Stock at $100 (the strike you sold) | $0 | $700 |
| Stock unchanged at $100 | $0 | $700 |
There is only one dial here that keeps it a straddle: the tenor. Move the strikes apart and you have built a strangle instead, which has its own page.
| Days | Short strike | Away from spot | Credit | Max loss | Risk : reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 100 | +0.0% | $276 | unlimited | — |
| 21 | 100 | +0.0% | $478 | unlimited | — |
| 45 | 100 | +0.0% | $700 | unlimited | — |
| 90 | 100 | +0.0% | $988 | unlimited | — |
The width of a straddle’s breakevens is the market’s forecast. Selling it is disagreeing with that forecast, out loud, in size.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | -8.0 | -9.04 | $+7.75 | $-27.88 | $-0.12 |
| 21 | -5.5 | -13.27 | $+11.37 | $-19.09 | $-0.04 |
| 7 | -3.1 | -23.03 | $+19.72 | $-11.04 | $-0.01 |
The position at entry — stock $100 · 25% volatility. Per contract, from the model.
This is the part that decides whether the strategy works, and it is almost never put plainly.
You cannot be paid theta without being short gamma. They are not two features of the trade. They are the rent and the risk on one lease.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | -8.0 | -9.04 | $+7.75 | $-27.88 | $-0.12 |
| 21 | -5.5 | -13.27 | $+11.37 | $-19.09 | $-0.04 |
| 7 | -3.1 | -23.03 | $+19.72 | $-11.04 | $-0.01 |
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | +28.5 | -8.86 | $+6.61 | $-25.16 | $+4.28 |
| 21 | +46.0 | -11.49 | $+8.52 | $-15.23 | $+2.86 |
| 7 | +74.6 | -12.54 | $+9.06 | $-5.54 | $+1.46 |
The trap is that the premium looks enormous.
The breakevens are the market telling you how far it expects the stock to move. The premium is not free money, it is the forecast.
How this shows up in our tests — pending. No result has been published on this structure yet.