Everything above is the idea. This is the position — the lines you would actually send to a broker.
| Leg | Action | Qty | Expiry | DTE | Strike | Delta | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sell to open | -1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 105 Call | -0.32 (32Δ) | $1.77 |
| 2 | Buy to open | +1 | 14 Jan 27 | 135 | 95 Call | +0.70 (70Δ) | $9.61 |
| Net | Debit | 1 position | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | — | +0.37 | $7.83 |
BUY +1 DIAGONAL XYZ 16 OCT 26/14 JAN 27 95/105 CALL @ 7.83 DEBIT
Bull
makes the claim
I get the direction I want, cheaper than owning the stock, and somebody else pays part of the cost every month. When the near option expires I sell another one. It is a covered call where the cover costs a fraction of the shares.
Bear
doubts it
You have two moving parts and you have to be right about the interaction of both. If the stock runs past your short strike quickly you cannot deliver — you have a long option, not shares — and the position you are left holding is not the one you thought you owned.
Ferret
settles it
The measurable version of that disagreement is what happens on a fast move up, how often it happens, and what it costs when it does. Nobody publishes that. It needs per-leg volatility to test properly, which is the same limit the calendar has.
The diagonal spread on XYZ at $100 · 25% volatility · 4% rate · 45 days. Priced from the model, not written by hand.
| At expiry | |
|---|---|
| Debit paid | $783 |
| Maximum profit | $437 |
| Maximum loss | $-783 |
| Breakeven | $99.28 |
The chart above is the shape at expiry. It puts the bend right next to the money, which makes the trade look like it is already on the edge. It is not — here is the day you open it.
The same structure set up at 30Δ · 45 days · credit $749. The shaded band is the room between the stock and the strike you sold.
| On day one | At expiry | |
|---|---|---|
| Stock at $106 (the strike you sold) | $195 | $476 |
| Stock unchanged at $100 | $0 | $21 |
Three dials, not two: where the short strike sits, how far apart the strikes are, and how far apart the dates are. The panels move the near tenor and hold the rest.
| Days | Short strike | Away from spot | Credit | Max loss | Risk : reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 102 | -2.0% | $1,000 | $-1,000 | — |
| 21 | 104 | -4.0% | $861 | $-861 | — |
| 45 | 106 | -6.0% | $749 | $-749 | — |
| 90 | 109 | -9.0% | $634 | $-634 | — |
| Delta | Short strike | Away from spot | Credit | Max loss | Risk : reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40Δ | 103 | -3.0% | $848 | $-848 | — |
| 25Δ | 107 | -7.0% | $714 | $-714 | — |
| 15Δ | 110 | -10.0% | $606 | $-606 | — |
A diagonal is a covered call whose cover is an option. Everything odd about it follows from that one substitution.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | +37.1 | -1.79 | $+1.21 | $+8.67 | $+18.38 |
| 21 | +47.4 | -2.52 | $+1.73 | $+11.88 | $+17.35 |
| 7 | +62.2 | -1.84 | $+0.99 | $+15.57 | $+16.36 |
The position at entry — stock $100 · 25% volatility. Per contract, from the model.
This is the part that decides whether the strategy works, and it is almost never put plainly.
You cannot be paid theta without being short gamma. They are not two features of the trade. They are the rent and the risk on one lease.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | +37.1 | -1.79 | $+1.21 | $+8.67 | $+18.38 |
| 21 | +47.4 | -2.52 | $+1.73 | $+11.88 | $+17.35 |
| 7 | +62.2 | -1.84 | $+0.99 | $+15.57 | $+16.36 |
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | +28.3 | -2.49 | $+2.09 | $+4.21 | $+19.37 |
| 21 | +32.8 | -4.37 | $+3.78 | $+6.52 | $+18.77 |
| 7 | +39.6 | -8.70 | $+7.72 | $+9.33 | $+18.30 |
The trap is what happens on a fast move up.
You are short a call and you do not own the shares. What you own is another option.
How this shows up in our tests — pending. No result has been published on this structure yet.