Everything above is the idea. This is the position — the lines you would actually send to a broker.
| Leg | Action | Qty | Expiry | DTE | Strike | Delta | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sell to open | -1 | 1 Oct 26 | 30 | 100 Put | +0.47 (47Δ) | $2.69 |
| 2 | Buy to open | +1 | 31 Oct 26 | 60 | 100 Put | -0.45 (45Δ) | $3.71 |
| Net | Debit | 1 position | 1 Oct 26 | 30 | — | +0.01 | $1.02 |
BUY +1 CALENDAR XYZ 1 OCT 26/31 OCT 26 100/100 PUT @ 1.02 DEBIT
Bull
makes the claim
The near option loses value faster than the far one, every single day. I am buying that difference for a small, defined amount. If the stock sits still I am paid for its stillness and I still own the long option afterwards.
Bear
doubts it
You have bought something whose value at the moment of truth depends on a number nobody can forecast — the implied volatility of the far leg on that day. Get the price right, get the volatility wrong, and you still lose. That is two forecasts to pay for one.
Ferret
settles it
Then a test of this cannot use a fixed volatility, and most published calendar backtests do exactly that. Until we can price the far leg with its own implied volatility on the day, we should not publish a calendar result at all.
The calendar spread on XYZ at $100 · 25% volatility · 4% rate · 30 days. Priced from the model, not written by hand.
| At expiry | |
|---|---|
| Debit paid | $102 |
| Maximum profit | $168 |
| Maximum loss | $-134 |
| Breakevens | $96.03, $104.93 |
The chart above is the shape at expiry. It puts the bend right next to the money, which makes the trade look like it is already on the edge. It is not — here is the day you open it.
The same structure set up at 50Δ · 30 days · credit $102. The shaded band is the room between the stock and the strike you sold.
| On day one | At expiry | |
|---|---|---|
| Stock at $100 (the strike you sold) | $0 | $168 |
| Stock unchanged at $100 | $0 | $168 |
The dial that matters is where the near expiry sits, and the gap between the two legs. The panels below hold the gap at thirty days and move the near leg.
| Days | Short strike | Away from spot | Credit | Max loss | Risk : reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 100 | +0.0% | $163 | $-196 | — |
| 14 | 100 | +0.0% | $134 | $-167 | — |
| 30 | 100 | +0.0% | $102 | $-134 | — |
| 60 | 100 | +0.0% | $74 | $-107 | — |
A calendar is priced by the difference between two dates. Which two you choose is the entire specification.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | +1.3 | -1.64 | $+1.40 | $+4.67 | $-4.01 |
| 14 | +1.7 | -3.56 | $+3.05 | $+5.98 | $-4.04 |
| 5 | +2.2 | -8.49 | $+7.27 | $+7.64 | $-4.05 |
The position at entry — stock $100 · 25% volatility. Per contract, from the model.
This is the part that decides whether the strategy works, and it is almost never put plainly.
You cannot be paid theta without being short gamma. They are not two features of the trade. They are the rent and the risk on one lease.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | +1.3 | -1.64 | $+1.40 | $+4.67 | $-4.01 |
| 14 | +1.7 | -3.56 | $+3.05 | $+5.98 | $-4.04 |
| 5 | +2.2 | -8.49 | $+7.27 | $+7.64 | $-4.05 |
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | +7.4 | -1.21 | $+0.89 | $+5.15 | $-4.80 |
| 14 | +13.7 | -1.80 | $+1.29 | $+6.87 | $-5.07 |
| 5 | +24.4 | -0.74 | $+0.34 | $+9.00 | $-5.40 |
The trap is that it looks like a trade about price.
A calendar is a volatility trade wearing a direction trade’s clothes.
How this shows up in our tests — pending. No result has been published on this structure yet.