Everything above is the idea. This is the position — the lines you would actually send to a broker.
| Leg | Action | Qty | Expiry | DTE | Strike | Delta | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buy to open | +1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 100 Call | +0.54 (54Δ) | $3.74 |
| 2 | Sell to open | -1 | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | 105 Call | -0.32 (32Δ) | $1.77 |
| Net | Debit | 1 position | 16 Oct 26 | 45 | $5 wide | +0.22 | $1.97 |
BUY +1 VERTICAL XYZ 16 OCT 26 100/105 CALL @ 1.97 DEBIT
Bull
makes the claim
I know exactly what this costs me on the day I put it on, and the number is small. I am not selling anyone insurance, I am not short gamma, and no gap can hurt me more than the ticket price.
Bear
doubts it
You have bought a decaying asset and sold a bit of the decay back. Every quiet day costs you money. You need the move, you need it in the right direction, and you need it before the date — three things, all of which have to go right.
Ferret
settles it
The credit structures on this shelf win often and lose big. This one loses often and wins moderately. Those are not comparable on win rate, and anyone comparing them on win rate has already got the answer wrong. Give me expectancy and I will tell you which is better.
The debit spread on XYZ at $100 · 25% volatility · 4% rate · 45 days. Priced from the model, not written by hand.
| At expiry | |
|---|---|
| Debit paid | $197 |
| Maximum profit | $303 |
| Maximum loss | $-197 |
| Breakeven | $101.97 |
The chart above is the shape at expiry. It puts the bend right next to the money, which makes the trade look like it is already on the edge. It is not — here is the day you open it.
The same structure set up at 50Δ · 45 days · credit $176. The shaded band is the room between the stock and the strike you sold.
| On day one | At expiry | |
|---|---|---|
| Stock at $106 (the strike you sold) | $128 | $324 |
| Stock unchanged at $100 | $0 | $-176 |
The same two dials, working in reverse. A debit spread bought closer to the money costs more and needs less to happen.
| Days | Short strike | Away from spot | Credit | Max loss | Risk : reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 105 | -5.0% | $129 | $-129 | — |
| 21 | 105 | -5.0% | $174 | $-174 | — |
| 45 | 106 | -6.0% | $176 | $-176 | — |
| 90 | 107 | -7.0% | $183 | $-183 | — |
| Delta | Short strike | Away from spot | Credit | Max loss | Risk : reward |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40Δ | 104 | -4.0% | $218 | $-218 | — |
| 25Δ | 100 | +0.0% | $307 | $-307 | — |
| 15Δ | 97 | +3.0% | $369 | $-369 | — |
A defined maximum loss you reach by doing nothing is still a loss you reach by doing nothing.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | +21.6 | +0.43 | $-0.58 | $+1.31 | $+2.41 |
| 21 | +29.9 | +1.60 | $-1.68 | $+2.30 | $+1.62 |
| 7 | +43.0 | +7.00 | $-6.45 | $+3.36 | $+0.80 |
The position at entry — stock $100 · 25% volatility. Per contract, from the model.
This is the part that decides whether the strategy works, and it is almost never put plainly.
You cannot be paid theta without being short gamma. They are not two features of the trade. They are the rent and the risk on one lease.
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | +21.6 | +0.43 | $-0.58 | $+1.31 | $+2.41 |
| 21 | +29.9 | +1.60 | $-1.68 | $+2.30 | $+1.62 |
| 7 | +43.0 | +7.00 | $-6.45 | $+3.36 | $+0.80 |
| Days left | Delta | Gamma | Theta / day | Vega | Rho |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | +20.8 | -0.72 | $+0.46 | $-2.41 | $+2.32 |
| 21 | +29.3 | -1.75 | $+1.34 | $-2.75 | $+1.58 |
| 7 | +44.4 | -6.30 | $+5.42 | $-3.30 | $+0.82 |
The trap on a debit spread is how comfortable the defined risk feels.
The most you can lose is the price of the ticket. You reach it by doing nothing at all.
How this shows up in our tests — pending. No result has been published on this structure yet.