Take the specification this site uses for the bull put spread and let it reach the strike it sold. Nothing about the position changes. Only the calendar moves.
| Days left | Gamma | Theta a day |
|---|---|---|
| 45 | −1.18 | $0.67 |
| 21 | −2.90 | $1.94 |
| 7 | −9.25 | $6.81 |
It is a gamma rule wearing a time rule’s clothes.
Black-Scholes arithmetic from the specification above, with the stock at $95.50. Not a measured result.
One set of entries, run three ways: closed at 21 days, closed at a profit target, and held to expiry. Scored on expectancy per trade and on the worst drawdown, not on the share of trades that won. Anything short of that is two people quoting each other.
It is widely repeated, which is different. It rests on published research from one part of the retail options industry, and this site has not yet reproduced it.
Not in this form — there are no days left to leave. The equivalent is a clock time during the session, and it is managing exactly the same thing.
That is what the rule says, and a profit target usually closes those trades first anyway. The date matters most for the positions that are neither won nor lost.
There is nothing structural about the number. Gamma steepens gradually, not on a particular Tuesday. The precision of the number is the least defensible part of it.
No result on the 21-day rule is published here yet.
It sits inside the exit ladder run — the same entries closed seven ways. When it publishes, this entry will link to it and will state whether the rule earned its keep under our specification, including if the answer is no.